Water Temperature/Cold-Stunning Predictions
Summary: Unusually low temperatures can result in substantial fish kills and sea turtle cold stunnings. The Texas Marine Cold Water Response Collaborative (TCRC) and many other organizations and volunteers are ready to spring into action to mitigate the impact of these cold water events. To do so advanced notice is critical. Since the mid 2000’s a group of scientists and organizations, now known as the TCRC, has developed AI predictive models and related processes to alert of the upcoming events and help coordinate the response and the potential voluntary interruptions of navigation, dredging and other coastal engineering activities in the Laguna Madre. This impactful and long term effort was initiated by the Conrad Blucher Institute, the Coastal Conservation Association (CCA) Texas, Texas Parks and Wildlife (TPWD) and the Gulf Intracoastal Canal Association (GICA). You will find below the initial reports from the mid 2000’s that launched the research and the collaboration. You will also find links to recent publications, live water temperature models, and a link to the proceedings of the March 2026 TCRC workshop which will provide comprehensive information on the overall history, science, and processes related to this collaborative. These recent development and the cutting edge AI model with uncertainty quantification were made possible thanks to the funding and the collaborations from one of the five National Science Foundation inaugural AI Institutes, the AI2ES Institute (AI2ES.org). During the cold water seasons, we provide guidance for the full Texas coast and have a model for Espiritu Santo Bay but interruptions of coastal engineering activities are requested only in place for the Laguna Madre where the intracoastal waterway overlaps with significant sea turtle and fisheries habitat.
News
New Paper: “Machine Learning Uncertainty Quantification for Extreme Cold Water Events”
White, Miranda et. al
Abstract: Uncertainty in reference to machine learning (ML) systems is notable across many scientific domains due to its influence on critical decision-making processes. But further attention is needed when using ML-uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches for rare and impactful environmental events…
TCRC Presentation at GICA Seminar in New Orleans, LA
Nunez, A., Tissot, P.E., White, M. (2026, August 6). Natural Resource Cold-Stunning Coordination [Invited Oral Presentation]. 121st GICA Seminar, New Orleans, LS.
GICA President Paul Dittman kindly invited the TCRC to present at the 2026 GICA seminar in New Orleans, August 6-7, 2026. In attendance were large groups of GICA members, US Coast Guard members including all Gulf Port Captains, and three district leaders of the US Army Corps of Engineers. Members of TCRC leadership, Texas Parks and Wildlife Regional Biologist Alex Nunez, TAMUCC’s Dr. Philippe Tissot and Dr. Miranda White gave the attached presentation following a contextual introduction by GICA President Paul Dittman. This seminar presented a great opportunity to explain the well-scripted process behind occasional interruptions of navigation and dredging, as well as a chance to discuss the TCRC collaborative, AI models, and trust in the AI models with seminar attendees. Thank you Paul Dittman and GICA for this opportunity!
Water Temperature Model for Texas Upper Laguna Madre Now Live
Click the button below to access live water temperature/ cold-stunning models, forecasting conditions in the Laguna Madre:
Texas Marine Cold-Water Response Collaborative: New Webpage
On March 18th, 2026, researchers at Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi (TAMU-CC) Conrad Blucher Institute (CBI) hosted a one-day workshop with 40 members of the Texas Marine Cold Water Response Collaborative (TCRC) and other stakeholders interested in cold stunning events. The focus: a newly operational AI model — now equipped with full uncertainty quantification — for predicting cold-stunning events that render sea turtles and fishes lethargic along the Texas coast…(click the button to visit this new page and read more).
Reports
TX Parks & Wildlife Performance Report: Monitoring and Predictive Modeling of Water Temperatures in the Laguna Madre
John Adams, Philippe Tissot, Larry McKinney, & Robert L. Cook
Executive Summary: Monitoring and Predictive Modeling of Water Temperatures in the Laguna Madre
Philippe E. Tissot, Robyn Ball & John S. Adams
Full Report: Monitoring and Predictive Modeling of Water Temperatures in the Laguna Madre
Philippe E. Tissot, Robyn Ball & John S. Adams
Water Temperature Prediction Sites
Status: active
Click on the links below to access the new 2026 water temperature model with uncertainty quantification:
https://sherlock-prod.tamucc.edu/flare/crps
Click on the links below to access the historical model which guided TRCR through the 2025-2026 cold water season:
